A Regression Model on Urban Migration and Agricultural Labour Force in India from 2012 to 2022 and the Impact on Rural Sector


Authors : S.N Saha

Volume/Issue : Volume 10 - 2025, Issue 8 - August


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/5b8efebn

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/596wa6v9

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25aug762

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Abstract : The objective of the study is to find the importance of increasing Socio-economic development in rural areas of India. Data reveal that urban migration has reduced even the agricultural labour force in the rural sector. The share of rural economy has been falling. Rural people have been facing challenges because of low income, low standard of living and inadequate job opportunities. The urban migration is increasing. Rural areas have been brought under some important Government projects. But there exist challenges related to basic services like medical, education and recreation too. Real developmental gap between the rural and urban areas has been widening. Excessive migration to-wards urban areas should be checked. For this necessary infrastructure support is desirable in rural areas. Investment opportunities including non-agricultural sectors are important. This will reduce the existing gap in development and thereby migratory trends will move backwards. Aim of the Study: Under the above circumstances, certain features have already cropped up which may call for the necessity of rural socio-economic infrastructural issues as an imperative for reducing the gap between the rural and urban economies. The primary aim is to highlight the importance of using the resources in the rural economy in order to ensure balanced development across the sectors concerned. Methodology: The study deals with statistical data, regression calculation, diagram, calculation of Standard Error and that for accepting the model (hypothesis testing). Data have been collected from published sources. As for symbolized residual, ε (epsilon) has been mentioned (ε =y-ŷ) to show the difference between the dependent variable (Y) and predicted value (ŷ) from the regression model. The negatively slopped regression line shows a decline in y-values, while x-values are increasing. Hypothesis: Migration of labour force from Agricultural sector has resulted socio-economic challenges for the rural sector in India. Drawback of the study: The matters under consideration are based on the availability of statistical data. However current data for sub-sectors under the Indian agriculture sector are somewhat lacking, in the study. So there may be a gap related to data. Besides, the detailed information in respect of the reasons of urban migration is also lacking in the study. Thus micro level impacts were not studied.

Keywords : Urban Migration, Agricultural Labour Force, Regression, Least Square Method, Standard Error, Negatively Sloped, Socio-Economic, Rural Artisans, GVA Challenges.

References :

  1. Harris Selod and Forhad Shilpi, The world Bank, Rural-Urban Migration in Developing countries, Lessons from Literature CJE2  Codes  J61, 015
  2. Jason Hung, Detailed analysis on why Lewis model and Harris-Todaro model are inapplicable to the interpretation of rural-urban migration in China, 22 April,2022
  3. Wikipedia, Policy Research work paper
  4. Harris Selod and Forad Shilpi, op. cit.
  5. Harris Selod and Forad Shilpi, World Bank  Document, Rural-Urban Migration in developing countries, May,2021
  6. Rural-Urban distribution of population, census of India 2011, 15July,2011
  7. Rural urban distribution etc, (census report-2011) op. cit
  8. Rural-Urban distribution etc. ( census Report 2011), op. cit
  9. SBI Research, Sep,2024
  10. Census Report, 2011, op. cit
  11. Economic Survey, Sep,2024
  12. Statistics for the Behavioral sciences, Frederick J. Gravetta, L. B. Wallnau, Tata Me-Grow-Hill
  13. Mathematics for Economists, An introductory Survey, Taro Yamane (1968)
  14. Quantitative Method, the Institute of charted Financial Analysis of India, Hyderabad,1999
  15. Taro Yamane (1968), op. cit
  16. Quantitative Method, op. cit Page no. 101
  17. Statistics for Behavioral sciences, op. cit
  18. N.G. Das, Statistical Method, Saltlake, Calcutta,(2001)
  19. Dristi IAS, 27 Feb,2023
  20. Depeasantization and migration : Problems of India Rural Society, Feb,27,2025 Hub Sociology desk
  21. State of Rural Economy, Dristi IAS, 27Nov,2024
  22. Economic Survey, 2024-25, Statistical Appendix, NSO
  23. Statistic 2025
  24. Economic Survey, 2024-25
  25. Drishti IAS, State of Rural Economy, 27Nov,2024
  26. Press Information Bureau, Govt. of India
  27. Vidhi Taparia, Rural mostly percapita  Expenditure rising faster than urban : MOSPI Dec, 27, 2024
  28. Ministry of urban Affairs (MOHUA)
  29. Earth 5 R Rural Development initiatives : Bridging Urban-Rural gap
  30. Schemes/Programmes, Ministry of Rural Development Govt. of India
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The objective of the study is to find the importance of increasing Socio-economic development in rural areas of India. Data reveal that urban migration has reduced even the agricultural labour force in the rural sector. The share of rural economy has been falling. Rural people have been facing challenges because of low income, low standard of living and inadequate job opportunities. The urban migration is increasing. Rural areas have been brought under some important Government projects. But there exist challenges related to basic services like medical, education and recreation too. Real developmental gap between the rural and urban areas has been widening. Excessive migration to-wards urban areas should be checked. For this necessary infrastructure support is desirable in rural areas. Investment opportunities including non-agricultural sectors are important. This will reduce the existing gap in development and thereby migratory trends will move backwards. Aim of the Study: Under the above circumstances, certain features have already cropped up which may call for the necessity of rural socio-economic infrastructural issues as an imperative for reducing the gap between the rural and urban economies. The primary aim is to highlight the importance of using the resources in the rural economy in order to ensure balanced development across the sectors concerned. Methodology: The study deals with statistical data, regression calculation, diagram, calculation of Standard Error and that for accepting the model (hypothesis testing). Data have been collected from published sources. As for symbolized residual, ε (epsilon) has been mentioned (ε =y-ŷ) to show the difference between the dependent variable (Y) and predicted value (ŷ) from the regression model. The negatively slopped regression line shows a decline in y-values, while x-values are increasing. Hypothesis: Migration of labour force from Agricultural sector has resulted socio-economic challenges for the rural sector in India. Drawback of the study: The matters under consideration are based on the availability of statistical data. However current data for sub-sectors under the Indian agriculture sector are somewhat lacking, in the study. So there may be a gap related to data. Besides, the detailed information in respect of the reasons of urban migration is also lacking in the study. Thus micro level impacts were not studied.

Keywords : Urban Migration, Agricultural Labour Force, Regression, Least Square Method, Standard Error, Negatively Sloped, Socio-Economic, Rural Artisans, GVA Challenges.

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Paper Submission Last Date
30 - November - 2025

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