Authors : Merlyn Fransisca Rassa; Anton Kaharu; Mohammad Yusuf Tuloli

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 6 - June

Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/2zfxdcru

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/4svm4dzz

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26jun2008

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.

Abstract : This study investigates the structural imbalances between demand and supply in intercity public transportation (locally known as AKDP paratransit) across Gorontalo Province, Indonesia. Utilizing an empirical approach, field data were collected through comprehensive passenger counts and vehicle tracking across five major intercity routes connecting Gorontalo City with surrounding regencies. The results reveal a severe state of over-supply across the transit network: while the total daily regional supply reached 720 available seats, the actual daily passenger demand peaked at only 287 individuals, generating a critical supply-to-demand mismatch. On a corridor level, the high-frequency Kota–Isimu route exhibited the lowest efficiency with a 28% average load factor due to uncoordinated headway distributions (averaging 8.5 minutes) among 37 actively competing fleets. Conversely, peripheral corridors like Kota–Taludaa suffered from operational scarcity, recording an unviable frequency of 0.8 vehicles/hour despite holding latent demand. These temporal and spatial mismatches underscore how unregulated paratransit operations lead to destructive competition and low asset utilization. This study concludes that the current supply-driven model is unsustainable. We propose a data-driven route restructuring framework and a transition toward a regulated headway system to optimize load factors and stabilize regional transit economics in emerging provinces.

Keywords : Demand-Supply Imbalance; Intercity Paratransit; Load Factor; Headway Optimization; Gorontalo Province.

References :

1. Cervero, R. (2000). The transit metropolis: A global inquiry. Island Press.
2. Cervero, R. (2000). Informal transport in the developing world. United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat).
3. Dinas Perhubungan Provinsi Gorontalo. (2025). Rencana strategis dan evaluasi kuota jaringan trayek angkutan kota dalam provinsi (AKDP) Provinsi Gorontalo. Pemerintah Provinsi Gorontalo.
4. Ferro, P. S., & Behrens, R. (2015). From responsive to supply-driven? A review of paratransit service reform contracts and regulation in South Africa and Latin America. Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting, Washington DC.
5. Joewono, T. B., & Kubota, H. (2005). The characteristics of paratransit and user perceptions of public transport in Indonesia. Journal of Public Transportation, 8(4), 51-74. https://doi.org/10.5038/2375-0901.8.4.3
6. Joewono, T. B., & Kubota, H. (2007). User perceptions of private paratransit operation in Indonesia. Journal of Public Transportation, 10(4), 65-84. https://doi.org/10.5038/2375-0901.10.4.4
7. Kementerian Perhubungan Republik Indonesia. (2019). Peraturan Menteri Perhubungan Republik Indonesia Nomor PM 15 Tahun 2019 tentang Penyelenggaraan Angkutan Orang dengan Kendaraan Bermotor Umum Dalam Trayek. Sekretariat Negara.
8. Rassa, M. F. (2026). Analisis ketidakseimbangan permintaan dan penyediaan angkutan kota dalam provinsi di Provinsi Gorontalo [Unpublished undergraduate thesis]. Universitas Negeri Gorontalo.
9. Saraswati, B., & Shashi, S. (2021). Deconstructing paratransit imbalances: Headway volatility and load factor dynamics in secondary emerging cities. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 9(3), 1120-1132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2021.05.012
10. Sopoțianu, A., & Turnea, M. (2023). Empirical supply-demand indexing frameworks for regional transit sustainability. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 168, 103-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2023.01.009
11. Venter, C. (2013). The micro-dynamics of paratransit operations and competition: Lessons for regulation. Research in Transportation Economics, 39(1), 216-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.06.015.