Analysing Monthly Return Patterns: A Literature Review Study of Seasonal Trends in the Indian Stock Market Using Nifty 50


Authors : P. Vidya Vaishnavi

Volume/Issue : Volume 10 - 2025, Issue 8 - August


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/2vcvf5c6

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/3fnc3zc5

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25aug350

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Abstract : This study explores the presence of seasonal patterns—also known as calendar anomalies—in the Indian stock market. Using findings from various researchers, it examines whether specific months or days consistently show higher or lower returns. The analysis focuses on well-known indices such as Nifty 50, Sensex, BSE 500, Midcap, and SmallCap over different time periods from 1990 to 2021. Key findings show that while some months like February, November, and April have offered better returns during certain years, these patterns are not consistent over time. Notably, the popular January effect seen in Western markets is mostly absent in India. The study also looks into the weekend effect but finds little or no clear advantage in trading on specific weekdays. Seasonal effects seem to be more noticeable in small-cap stocks than in large-cap ones. These anomalies suggest that the Indian stock market is not perfectly efficient, meaning that careful investors might benefit by paying attention to these patterns. However, because these trends are not always reliable, the study advises caution and recommends combining seasonal analysis with broader market research.

References :

  1. Mehta, K., & Chander, R. (2009). Seasonality in Indian Stock Market: A re-examination of January Effect. Asia Pacific Business Review, 5(4), 28-42.
  2. Pramath Nath Acharya, Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal, Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra; Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models. VILAKSHAN - XIMB Journal of Management 13 March 2024; 21 (1): 2–14. 
  3. Elango, D. R., & Al Macki, N. (2008). Monday effect and stock return seasonality: Further empirical evidence. The Business Review, Cambridge10(2), 282-288.
  4. Nandi, A., & Samanta, P. K. Weekend Effect: A Case Study on NIFTY 50.
  5. Verma, D. (2017). A Study of Monthly Seasonality effect in the Indian Stock Markets. Emerging Issues in Finance2017, 223.
  6. Patel, N. R., Radadia, N., & Dhawan, J. (2012). Day of the week effect of Asian stock markets. Researchers World3(3), 60.
  7. Desai, D. J., & Trivedi, A. (2012). A Study of Day of the Month Effect in S&P CNX Nifty 50. Available at SSRN 2186110.
  8. Raghuram, G. (2017). Investigating the ’Month of the Year’ Effect in India. Indian Journal of Finance11(1), 11–28.
  9. Meher Shiva Tadepalli, Ravi Kumar Jain; Persistence of calendar anomalies: insights and perspectives from literature. American Journal of Business 23 May 2018; 33 (1-2): 18–60.
  10. Harshita, Shveta Singh, Surendra S. Yadav; Calendar anomaly: unique evidence from the Indian stock market. Journal of Advances in Management Research 5 February 2018; 15 (1): 87–108.
  11. Dinesh Jaisinghani; An empirical test of calendar anomalies for the Indian securities markets. South Asian Journal of Global Business Research 7 March 2016; 5 (1): 53–84.
  12. Md Yeasin, Purushottam Sharma, Ranjit Kumar Paul, Dinesh Chand Meena, & Md Ejaz Anwer. (2024). Understanding price volatility and seasonality in agricultural commodities in India. Agricultural Economics Research Review36(2), 177-188.

This study explores the presence of seasonal patterns—also known as calendar anomalies—in the Indian stock market. Using findings from various researchers, it examines whether specific months or days consistently show higher or lower returns. The analysis focuses on well-known indices such as Nifty 50, Sensex, BSE 500, Midcap, and SmallCap over different time periods from 1990 to 2021. Key findings show that while some months like February, November, and April have offered better returns during certain years, these patterns are not consistent over time. Notably, the popular January effect seen in Western markets is mostly absent in India. The study also looks into the weekend effect but finds little or no clear advantage in trading on specific weekdays. Seasonal effects seem to be more noticeable in small-cap stocks than in large-cap ones. These anomalies suggest that the Indian stock market is not perfectly efficient, meaning that careful investors might benefit by paying attention to these patterns. However, because these trends are not always reliable, the study advises caution and recommends combining seasonal analysis with broader market research.

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Paper Submission Last Date
30 - November - 2025

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