Layer of protection analysis (LOPA) is an
efficient tool used for evaluating the risk associated with
different industries that face significant threats with
severe consequences. LOPA offers a semi-quantitative
outcome, leveraging information from process hazard
analysis such as the frequency of initiating events, the
severity of consequences, and the probability of failure
upon demand. By disregarding less severe or infrequent
consequences, LOPA becomes a practical and costeffective solution suitable for real-time
applications.Bayesian-LOPA methodology, an enhanced
version of LOPA based on Bayes' theorem, has been
recently developed. Bayesian logic utilizes prior event
knowledge to predict future events, aiming to reduce
uncertainty in the failure data of independent protection
layers (IPLs) or events within a plant. The posterior
value obtained through Bayesian estimation incorporates
both historical data from prior events and real-time data
from the plant, resulting in more reliable failure data for
assessing risk and ensuring the safety of the plant.
In this particular study, Bayesian-LOPA was
applied to assess the risk and mitigate accident scenarios
in a Sodium hypochlorite plant by implementing
Independent Protection Layers. The obtained risk value
can be compared against risk criteria defined by the
plant or government to determine if any accident
scenario fails to meet the set criteria. If necessary,
additional IPLs may be suggested to reduce the risk to
an acceptable level. Comparatively, Bayesian-LOPA
proves to be a more dependable risk assessment tool
than the traditional LOPA approach. It aids in
prioritizing various scenarios for maintenance and safety
enhancement efforts, thereby improving the overall
safety of the plant
Keywords :
Risk assessment, Bayes’ theorem, Bayesian logic, LOPA, protection layers.