Ca-Markov Model for Simulating Land use Land Cover Dynamics in Rufiji Delta of Tanzania

Authors : Job Asheri Chaula

Volume/Issue : Volume 4 - 2019, Issue 7 - July

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Sustainable management and resilience of ecosystems and their different services from land, water, biodiversity and forests has been highlighted as a means to address environmental degradation in Tanzania. On contrary, there is in adequate information to aid sustainable management of fragile natural resources such as Rufiji Delta. To address the limitation this research was carried out using Landsat data for appraising and simulating the future situation of Rufiji Delta using CA- Markov model. Maximum Likelihood Classification algorithm in ERDAS Imagine software was used for Landsat image classification and accuracy assessment for year 1998, 2008 and 2018 while Ca-Markov model of IDRIS Selva software was used for quantification of LULC change and simulation, correspondingly. The classification results of four different study periods have depicted the quantity land use land cover status in year 1998, 2008 and 2018. In year 1998 the impervious land cover was the largest class with 53413.40 ha (35.74% composition), followed by water bodies with 42506.10 ha (28.44% composition) while mangrove forest and non- mangrove vegetation consisted of 38060.40 ha (25.47 % composition) and 15468.50 ha (10.35% composition), correspondingly. In year 2018 the impervious land cover increased to 60759.70 ha (40.66% composition) while mangrove forest and non-mangrove vegetation consisted of 35062.2 ha (23.46% composition) and 23019.2 ha (15.40% composition), correspondingly. Water bodies declined to 30607.10 ha (20.48% composition) following the consumption of water in hydro-electrical and agricultural expansion proximal to the Rufiji Delta. In year 2048 a notable decline to about 29757.07 ha, (18.91%), 34891.44 ha (21.35were recorded for mangrove forest and water bodies, correspondingly. The ongoing harvesting and clearing of mangrove forest for construction and other local use purpose. Substantial increase in area non-mangrove vegetation and impervious land cover was estimated to 22507.20 ha and 62292.84 ha, correspondingly. Agro afforestation, forestry farming, Agro-Zonation, adoption of AFOLU and LULCF programs are highly recommended in area proximal to Rufiji Delta.

Keywords : LULC Dynamics; Simulation Of LULC; LULC Modelling.


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