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Climate-Stratified Evaluation of NASA POWER and PVGIS Solar Irradiance Products and their Propagation into Photovoltaic Yield Uncertainty


Authors : Okpaneje Onyinye Theresa; Ndeche Ikechukwu Emmanuel; Ufot Elizabeth Gabriel; Omile Anthony Nduka

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 6 - June


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/ycpjm784

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/yutfkduj

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26jun1603

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.


Abstract : Reliable solar-resource characterisation is essential for photovoltaic (PV) project design, yet satellite and reanalysis products can produce climate-dependent biases that propagate into energy-yield and financial estimates. This study develops a harmonised framework for comparing NASA POWER and PVGIS solar-radiation products across 18 sites representing tropical rainforest (Af), tropical monsoon (Am), tropical savanna (Aw), hot semi-arid (BSh) and hot desert (BWh) climates in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Monthly global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) for 2003-2022 were quality screened, temporally harmonised and evaluated using mean bias error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, Pearson correlation and Willmott’s index of agreement. Dataset-specific irradiance inputs were propagated through a fixed-tilt PV modelling chain comprising irradiance transposition, module-temperature estimation, a five-parameter single-diode model and system-loss derating.

Keywords : Solar Irradiance; Photovoltaic Yield; NASA POWER; PVGIS; Satellite-Reanalysis Comparison; Aerosol Optical Depth; Uncertainty Propagation; Climate Classification.

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Reliable solar-resource characterisation is essential for photovoltaic (PV) project design, yet satellite and reanalysis products can produce climate-dependent biases that propagate into energy-yield and financial estimates. This study develops a harmonised framework for comparing NASA POWER and PVGIS solar-radiation products across 18 sites representing tropical rainforest (Af), tropical monsoon (Am), tropical savanna (Aw), hot semi-arid (BSh) and hot desert (BWh) climates in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Monthly global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) for 2003-2022 were quality screened, temporally harmonised and evaluated using mean bias error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, Pearson correlation and Willmott’s index of agreement. Dataset-specific irradiance inputs were propagated through a fixed-tilt PV modelling chain comprising irradiance transposition, module-temperature estimation, a five-parameter single-diode model and system-loss derating.

Keywords : Solar Irradiance; Photovoltaic Yield; NASA POWER; PVGIS; Satellite-Reanalysis Comparison; Aerosol Optical Depth; Uncertainty Propagation; Climate Classification.

Paper Submission Last Date
31 - July - 2026

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