Demand Forecasting Automated External Defibrilator (AED) at Pt. Zoll Medical Indonesia


Authors : Mulki Dwi Saputra; Sugiono

Volume/Issue : Volume 9 - 2024, Issue 1 - January

Google Scholar : http://tinyurl.com/2vs4wtpj

Scribd : http://tinyurl.com/4t5yr6w5

DOI : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10575283

Abstract : Automated External Defibrillator (AED) is a medical device that functions to provide dc electrical shock therapy with the aim of stimulating a heartbeat that has stopped suddenly. According to the provisions of the American Heart Association (AHA), AED devices can be used in the IHCA (Internal Hospitality Cardiac Arrest) category, namely treatment in the hospital or in OHCA (Out Hospitality Cardiac Arrest), namely in the environment outside the hospital. The development of this portable defibrillator or commonly known as AED is very helpful in its use and users do not require that only medical personnel be allowed to use it. Therefore, demand forecasting is very necessary to be able to meet demand for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) products in various regions of Indonesia. Time Series forecasting methods, namely Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and trend projections will be used in this research. Forecasting error calculations use the smallest error criteria MAD, MSE and MAPE. From the results of the analysis, distributor 1 experienced conditions where the data was running in stages both from the top and bottom from time to time. To maintain the best running data from bottom to top, it is possible to carry out mitigation by holding a market monitoring pattern by holding an evaluation report every week so that if at any time practitioners may have problems in the market that can be immediately detected and the best solution can be found; Distributor 2 has a seasonal demand pattern where distributor 2 experiences changing data conditions if there are factors that influence it repeatedly both in the time period and sectoral factors owned by distributor 2, this needs to be immediately carried out monitoring evaluation or monitoring and evaluation with the product principal. so that progress in handling obstacles can be overcome immediately; For distributors 3 & 4, if the market analysis occurs, there is a random demand pattern which cannot be described from the other three demand patterns, so that in evaluating this pattern, it is necessary to study the time interval of the pattern when the market decline occurs, so that by combining time it is hoped to get evaluation results at that time. This is an assessment of the inhibiting factors or obstacles that occur so that they can be corrected immediately.

Keywords : AED, AHA, IHCA, DEFIBRILLATOR.

Automated External Defibrillator (AED) is a medical device that functions to provide dc electrical shock therapy with the aim of stimulating a heartbeat that has stopped suddenly. According to the provisions of the American Heart Association (AHA), AED devices can be used in the IHCA (Internal Hospitality Cardiac Arrest) category, namely treatment in the hospital or in OHCA (Out Hospitality Cardiac Arrest), namely in the environment outside the hospital. The development of this portable defibrillator or commonly known as AED is very helpful in its use and users do not require that only medical personnel be allowed to use it. Therefore, demand forecasting is very necessary to be able to meet demand for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) products in various regions of Indonesia. Time Series forecasting methods, namely Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and trend projections will be used in this research. Forecasting error calculations use the smallest error criteria MAD, MSE and MAPE. From the results of the analysis, distributor 1 experienced conditions where the data was running in stages both from the top and bottom from time to time. To maintain the best running data from bottom to top, it is possible to carry out mitigation by holding a market monitoring pattern by holding an evaluation report every week so that if at any time practitioners may have problems in the market that can be immediately detected and the best solution can be found; Distributor 2 has a seasonal demand pattern where distributor 2 experiences changing data conditions if there are factors that influence it repeatedly both in the time period and sectoral factors owned by distributor 2, this needs to be immediately carried out monitoring evaluation or monitoring and evaluation with the product principal. so that progress in handling obstacles can be overcome immediately; For distributors 3 & 4, if the market analysis occurs, there is a random demand pattern which cannot be described from the other three demand patterns, so that in evaluating this pattern, it is necessary to study the time interval of the pattern when the market decline occurs, so that by combining time it is hoped to get evaluation results at that time. This is an assessment of the inhibiting factors or obstacles that occur so that they can be corrected immediately.

Keywords : AED, AHA, IHCA, DEFIBRILLATOR.

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