Factors Impacting Short Term Commercial Air Passengers Number


Authors : Teesta Jha

Volume/Issue : Volume 9 - 2024, Issue 12 - December

Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/m3vu97yv

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/5d6kkux5

DOI : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14470887

Abstract : Growth in the civil aviation industry is one of the most notable stories of the 21st century, with global air travel increasing sevenfold over the past four dec- ades (from 0.65 billion in 1980 to 4.5 billion in 2019). Forecasting future air travel requires a multifaceted approach, considering a wide range of influencing fac- tors. This paper provides an analysis of key determi- nants that will shape air travel demand in the coming years, including economic growth, population de- mographics, infrastructure development, and technolog- ical advancements. While factors such as government policies, global connectivity, tourism trends, and geopo- litical stability are not included, the study uses data from 2001 to 2019 to model travel demand for the top 10 GDP countries. By integrating these factors, the paper uses advanced forecasting models and scenario planning to predict future travel demand. This research highlights the importance of understanding key parameters for forecasting and identifies conditions that may influence long-term travel demand, providing valuable insights for the industry and policymakers.

Keywords : Commercial Passenger Forecast, Air Travel Demand, Factor Impacting Passenger Forecast.

References :

  1. Tüzün Tolga İNAN Asst. Prof. Dr. (2021). Determination of factors affecting Air transportation Passengers Number , Internation Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace, Volume-8, Issue-1            
  2. Developing a Long Term Air Traffic Demand Forecast Model by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
  3. World bank open data, https://data.worldbank.org/
  4. Zachariah, R.A., Sharma, S. & Kumar, V. Systematic review of passenger demand forecasting in aviation industry. Multimed Tools Appl 82, 46483–46519 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-023-15552-1

Growth in the civil aviation industry is one of the most notable stories of the 21st century, with global air travel increasing sevenfold over the past four dec- ades (from 0.65 billion in 1980 to 4.5 billion in 2019). Forecasting future air travel requires a multifaceted approach, considering a wide range of influencing fac- tors. This paper provides an analysis of key determi- nants that will shape air travel demand in the coming years, including economic growth, population de- mographics, infrastructure development, and technolog- ical advancements. While factors such as government policies, global connectivity, tourism trends, and geopo- litical stability are not included, the study uses data from 2001 to 2019 to model travel demand for the top 10 GDP countries. By integrating these factors, the paper uses advanced forecasting models and scenario planning to predict future travel demand. This research highlights the importance of understanding key parameters for forecasting and identifies conditions that may influence long-term travel demand, providing valuable insights for the industry and policymakers.

Keywords : Commercial Passenger Forecast, Air Travel Demand, Factor Impacting Passenger Forecast.

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