Authors :
Teesta Jha
Volume/Issue :
Volume 9 - 2024, Issue 12 - December
Google Scholar :
https://tinyurl.com/m3vu97yv
Scribd :
https://tinyurl.com/5d6kkux5
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14470887
Abstract :
Growth in the civil aviation industry is one of
the most notable stories of the 21st century, with global
air travel increasing sevenfold over the past four dec-
ades (from 0.65 billion in 1980 to 4.5 billion in 2019).
Forecasting future air travel requires a multifaceted
approach, considering a wide range of influencing fac-
tors. This paper provides an analysis of key determi-
nants that will shape air travel demand in the coming
years, including economic growth, population de-
mographics, infrastructure development, and technolog-
ical advancements. While factors such as government
policies, global connectivity, tourism trends, and geopo-
litical stability are not included, the study uses data from
2001 to 2019 to model travel demand for the top 10 GDP
countries. By integrating these factors, the paper uses
advanced forecasting models and scenario planning to
predict future travel demand. This research highlights
the importance of understanding key parameters for
forecasting and identifies conditions that may influence
long-term travel demand, providing valuable insights for
the industry and policymakers.
Keywords :
Commercial Passenger Forecast, Air Travel Demand, Factor Impacting Passenger Forecast.
References :
- Tüzün Tolga İNAN Asst. Prof. Dr. (2021). Determination of factors affecting Air transportation Passengers Number , Internation Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace, Volume-8, Issue-1
- Developing a Long Term Air Traffic Demand Forecast Model by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
- World bank open data, https://data.worldbank.org/
- Zachariah, R.A., Sharma, S. & Kumar, V. Systematic review of passenger demand forecasting in aviation industry. Multimed Tools Appl 82, 46483–46519 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-023-15552-1
Growth in the civil aviation industry is one of
the most notable stories of the 21st century, with global
air travel increasing sevenfold over the past four dec-
ades (from 0.65 billion in 1980 to 4.5 billion in 2019).
Forecasting future air travel requires a multifaceted
approach, considering a wide range of influencing fac-
tors. This paper provides an analysis of key determi-
nants that will shape air travel demand in the coming
years, including economic growth, population de-
mographics, infrastructure development, and technolog-
ical advancements. While factors such as government
policies, global connectivity, tourism trends, and geopo-
litical stability are not included, the study uses data from
2001 to 2019 to model travel demand for the top 10 GDP
countries. By integrating these factors, the paper uses
advanced forecasting models and scenario planning to
predict future travel demand. This research highlights
the importance of understanding key parameters for
forecasting and identifies conditions that may influence
long-term travel demand, providing valuable insights for
the industry and policymakers.
Keywords :
Commercial Passenger Forecast, Air Travel Demand, Factor Impacting Passenger Forecast.