Fiscal Deficit of Rajasthan: Trends, Cycles and Seasonal Variation


Authors : Dr. Debesh Bhowmik

Volume/Issue : Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 9 - September

Google Scholar : http://bitly.ws/9nMw

Scribd : https://bit.ly/3kLeJNh

DOI : 10.38124/IJISRT20SEP240

The paper has explored the smooth cyclical trend,cycles and seasonal patterns of fiscal deficit in gross and in per cent of net state domestic product of Rajasthan in current prices during 1990-91-2018-19 by applying Hamilton regression filter model(2018) which was also passed through ARIMA(p,d,q) forecasting model for 2030 and was also verified by heteroscedasticity test.Both the fiscal deficits in gross and in per cent of NSDP showed many peaks and troughs in cyclical patterns but only one peak and trough were found in the smooth cyclical trends and the inverse v shaped seasonal fluctuations were visible with no heteroscedasticity problems.Their ARIMA forecast models for 2030 are convergent,significant and move towards equilibrium.

Keywords : Gross Fiscal Deficit, Gross Fiscal Deficit % Of NSDP, Cyclical Trend, Cycles, Seasonal Variation, Hamilton Filter, ARIMA(p,d,q)

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