Authors :
Dr. Debesh Bhowmik
Volume/Issue :
Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 9 - September
Google Scholar :
http://bitly.ws/9nMw
Scribd :
https://bit.ly/3kLeJNh
DOI :
10.38124/IJISRT20SEP240
Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.
Abstract :
The paper has explored the smooth cyclical
trend,cycles and seasonal patterns of fiscal deficit in
gross and in per cent of net state domestic product of
Rajasthan in current prices during 1990-91-2018-19 by
applying Hamilton regression filter model(2018) which
was also passed through ARIMA(p,d,q) forecasting
model for 2030 and was also verified by
heteroscedasticity test.Both the fiscal deficits in gross
and in per cent of NSDP showed many peaks and
troughs in cyclical patterns but only one peak and
trough were found in the smooth cyclical trends and the
inverse v shaped seasonal fluctuations were visible with
no heteroscedasticity problems.Their ARIMA forecast
models for 2030 are convergent,significant and move
towards equilibrium.
Keywords :
Gross Fiscal Deficit, Gross Fiscal Deficit % Of NSDP, Cyclical Trend, Cycles, Seasonal Variation, Hamilton Filter, ARIMA(p,d,q)
The paper has explored the smooth cyclical
trend,cycles and seasonal patterns of fiscal deficit in
gross and in per cent of net state domestic product of
Rajasthan in current prices during 1990-91-2018-19 by
applying Hamilton regression filter model(2018) which
was also passed through ARIMA(p,d,q) forecasting
model for 2030 and was also verified by
heteroscedasticity test.Both the fiscal deficits in gross
and in per cent of NSDP showed many peaks and
troughs in cyclical patterns but only one peak and
trough were found in the smooth cyclical trends and the
inverse v shaped seasonal fluctuations were visible with
no heteroscedasticity problems.Their ARIMA forecast
models for 2030 are convergent,significant and move
towards equilibrium.
Keywords :
Gross Fiscal Deficit, Gross Fiscal Deficit % Of NSDP, Cyclical Trend, Cycles, Seasonal Variation, Hamilton Filter, ARIMA(p,d,q)
