This paper investigates the rise of South Korean tourism in the Philippines from 2014 to 2018 and explain its behavior year-to-year, and the other part is to forecast it’s growth or decline in the next following years; all of this is done through a Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) modelling framework. Results reveal that Korean arrivals were best modelled through a ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂ model, with residuals that are randomly distributed and contain no autocorrelations and an AICc value of -36.18, the lowest among the tested variations of the model, the model is the most appropriate to forecast the data for a 3-year period.

Keywords : South Korean arrivals; SARIMA; Philippine tourism; prediction