Forecasting Korean Arrivals in the Philippines


Authors : Enrique Raphael Versoza; Sofia Elaine Romarate; Aboy,Jacque Bon-Isaac

Volume/Issue : Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 9 - September

Google Scholar : http://bitly.ws/9nMw

Scribd : https://bit.ly/3mhqmwD

DOI : 10.38124/IJISRT20SEP081

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Abstract : This paper investigates the rise of South Korean tourism in the Philippines from 2014 to 2018 and explain its behavior year-to-year, and the other part is to forecast it’s growth or decline in the next following years; all of this is done through a Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) modelling framework. Results reveal that Korean arrivals were best modelled through a ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂ model, with residuals that are randomly distributed and contain no autocorrelations and an AICc value of -36.18, the lowest among the tested variations of the model, the model is the most appropriate to forecast the data for a 3-year period.

Keywords : South Korean arrivals; SARIMA; Philippine tourism; prediction

This paper investigates the rise of South Korean tourism in the Philippines from 2014 to 2018 and explain its behavior year-to-year, and the other part is to forecast it’s growth or decline in the next following years; all of this is done through a Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) modelling framework. Results reveal that Korean arrivals were best modelled through a ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂ model, with residuals that are randomly distributed and contain no autocorrelations and an AICc value of -36.18, the lowest among the tested variations of the model, the model is the most appropriate to forecast the data for a 3-year period.

Keywords : South Korean arrivals; SARIMA; Philippine tourism; prediction

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