Authors :
Agustino Gerson Togar Manurung; SugiyonoSugiyono
Volume/Issue :
Volume 7 - 2022, Issue 1 - January
Google Scholar :
http://bitly.ws/gu88
Scribd :
https://bit.ly/3KM0eGx
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5910629
Abstract :
Nickel is an important metal element in the
battery cell components used for electric cars. For the
manufacture of batteries, three main raw materials are
needed, namely nickel, lithium and cobalt. For nickel,
Indonesia controls 30 percent. Compared to some other
countries.From the results of experiments conducted by
the author, it was found that the most accurate
forecasting for nickel ore production data is the ARIMA
forecasting method. The results obtained from nickel ore
forecasts that there will be a decline after 2020. This is
not a good thing for the government's plan to increase
electric battery vehicles that use nickel.The decline in
nickel production was due to the excavation that was
exhausted in 2018 and 2019 resulting in production of
20,219,885/ton & 23,967,427/ton. Therefore, to stabilize
nickel ore production, it is necessary to control nickel ore
production targets so that production and demand for
nickel are not unequal but should be statistically
parallel.Forecasting using the ARIMA time series
method, getting the error valueMAPE = 3.940710675%,
and The Winter's method model with the smallest error
percentage value of 15.27%.
Keywords :
Forecasting, ARIMA, Nickel, HOLT-WINTER, ESDM.
Nickel is an important metal element in the
battery cell components used for electric cars. For the
manufacture of batteries, three main raw materials are
needed, namely nickel, lithium and cobalt. For nickel,
Indonesia controls 30 percent. Compared to some other
countries.From the results of experiments conducted by
the author, it was found that the most accurate
forecasting for nickel ore production data is the ARIMA
forecasting method. The results obtained from nickel ore
forecasts that there will be a decline after 2020. This is
not a good thing for the government's plan to increase
electric battery vehicles that use nickel.The decline in
nickel production was due to the excavation that was
exhausted in 2018 and 2019 resulting in production of
20,219,885/ton & 23,967,427/ton. Therefore, to stabilize
nickel ore production, it is necessary to control nickel ore
production targets so that production and demand for
nickel are not unequal but should be statistically
parallel.Forecasting using the ARIMA time series
method, getting the error valueMAPE = 3.940710675%,
and The Winter's method model with the smallest error
percentage value of 15.27%.
Keywords :
Forecasting, ARIMA, Nickel, HOLT-WINTER, ESDM.
