Forecasting of Southeast Sulawesi Nickel Ore Production using Arima & Holt-Winter Method

Authors : Agustino Gerson Togar Manurung; SugiyonoSugiyono

Volume/Issue : Volume 7 - 2022, Issue 1 - January

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Nickel is an important metal element in the battery cell components used for electric cars. For the manufacture of batteries, three main raw materials are needed, namely nickel, lithium and cobalt. For nickel, Indonesia controls 30 percent. Compared to some other countries.From the results of experiments conducted by the author, it was found that the most accurate forecasting for nickel ore production data is the ARIMA forecasting method. The results obtained from nickel ore forecasts that there will be a decline after 2020. This is not a good thing for the government's plan to increase electric battery vehicles that use nickel.The decline in nickel production was due to the excavation that was exhausted in 2018 and 2019 resulting in production of 20,219,885/ton & 23,967,427/ton. Therefore, to stabilize nickel ore production, it is necessary to control nickel ore production targets so that production and demand for nickel are not unequal but should be statistically parallel.Forecasting using the ARIMA time series method, getting the error valueMAPE = 3.940710675%, and The Winter's method model with the smallest error percentage value of 15.27%.

Keywords : Forecasting, ARIMA, Nickel, HOLT-WINTER, ESDM.


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