Gross Domestic Product is one of the social
indicators of development. This study attempts to model
Zambia’s Gross domestic product using the
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
model. This model has proved to help many countries
during economic recession or when there is any
disruption in the economic system due to pandemics or
natural disasters. The study utilized a time series
dataset from 1960 to 2018. The best model that fit the
data set, following the selection model criteria, was
ARIMA (5,2,0) model with the lowest Akaike’s
Information Criteria(AIC) and Bayesian Information
Criteria (BIC) and smallest volatility. The study results
showed that, on average, Zambia’s gross domestic
product will continue to rise over the next eight years.
However, few recession (decline) points are expected in
the period 2020 to 2022. It is hoped that the forecasts
would be useful for researchers in Zambia, including
the fiscal and monetary policy makers.
Keywords : ARIMA Model, Gross Domestic Product, Forecasting.