Authors :
Sule, Innocent Y.; Oduwole, H. K.; Umar, M. A.; Audu, A. M.; Shehu, S. L.
Volume/Issue :
Volume 10 - 2025, Issue 11 - November
Google Scholar :
https://tinyurl.com/yeyrrfdt
Scribd :
https://tinyurl.com/rzazntzh
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25nov625
Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.
Note : Google Scholar may take 30 to 40 days to display the article.
Abstract :
This study develops and analyzes a non-linear deterministic mathematical model for cholera transmission that
explicitly incorporates a gender-hygiene-driven incidence rate. Recognizing that social roles often determine exposure risks,
particularly in communities where women are primarily responsible for water collection, childcare, and food handling, the
model incorporates gender-disaggregated compartments for susceptible (S_m (t) and S_f (t)), infected (I_m (t) and I_f (t)),
and recovered individuals (R_m (t) and R_f (t)), alongside an environmental reservoir representing Vibrio cholerae
concentration (B(t)). The model extends the classical SIRB framework of [23], by introducing gender-specific hygiene
compliance rates into the infection incidence term, reflecting gendered differences in exposure and hygiene practices.
Analytical results include the derivation of the basic reproduction number (Ro), examination of equilibrium points, and
proof of the positivity and boundedness of solutions. Stability analyses were conducted for both the disease-free and endemic
equilibria, while sensitivity analysis identified the most influential parameters governing cholera spread. Numerical
simulations were performed using parameter values from relevant literature to explore the effects of varying hygiene
compliance, bacterial decay rate, and environmental sanitation on disease prevalence. Results reveal that gender-based
differences in hygiene significantly affect cholera transmission. In particular, higher hygiene adherence among both men
and women markedly reduces the reproduction number and infection prevalence, while poor hygiene and persistent
environmental contamination sustain outbreaks. The study concludes that effective cholera control requires integrating
behavioral and structural interventions—especially those that promote hygiene education among women and improve
environmental sanitation. Overall, this work provides a more realistic and socially responsive framework for modeling
cholera dynamics, bridging the gap between mathematical theory and public-health practice. It contributes to the growing
field of gender-aware epidemiological modeling and offers practical insights for designing sustainable, behavior-driven
cholera control strategies.
Keywords :
Choleraa Transmission, Gender-Hygiene Incidence Rate, Reproduction Number.
References :
- World Health Organization. New Cholera Cases in Africa Surging Fast, Reach a Third of 2022 Total in a Month. 2022. Available online: https://www.afro.who.int/news/new-cholera-cases-africa-surging-fast-reach-third-2022-total-month
- Delphine Sauvageot et al., “Cholera Incidence and Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Sites during Multi-country Surveillance,” PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10, no. 5 (2016): e0004679, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004679
- Elimian, K. O., F. Monje, and J. Harris. “History and Epidemiology of Cholera in Africa.” African Journal of Infectious Epidemiology 7, no. 1 (2019): 13–26.
- Boucher, R. M., A. Boivin, and A. Pande. “Historical Review of Global Cholera Pandemics.” Journal of Infectious Diseases Research 10, no. 3 (2015): 245–259.Zaitsev DA, Shmeleva TR.A parametric colored Petri net model of a switched network. International Journal of Communications, Network and System Sciences. 2011;04(01):65-76.
- Anderson, R. M., and R. M. May. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.
- Codeço, C. T. “Endemic and Epidemic Dynamics of Cholera: The Role of the Aquatic Reservoir.” BMC Infectious Diseases 1, no. 1 (2001): 1–14.
- Capasso, V., and S. Paveri-Fontana. “A Mathematical Model for the 1973 Cholera Epidemic in the Mediterranean Region.” Revista di Matematica Applicata 2, no. 3 (1979): 395–405.
- Hartley, D. M., J. G. Morris, and D. L. Smith. “Hyperinfectivity and the Spread of Cholera: A Re-analysis of Epidemic Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103, no. 6 (2006): 178–183.
- Cherotich, Sheila, Branis Khachiti, Phelesia Khakali, and Risper Kendi. “Mathematical Modeling of Cholera Mitigation Incorporating Handwashing.” African Scientific Annual Review 1, no. 1 (2024): 127–148. https://www.asarev.net
- Gautam, O. P., and V. Curtis. “Food Hygiene Practices of Rural Women and Microbial Risk for Children: Formative Research in Nepal.” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 105, no. 5 (September 20, 2021): 1383–1395. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0574
- Edward, Stephen, and Nkuba Nyerere. “A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics of Cholera with Control Measures.” Applied and Computational Mathematics 4, no. 2 (2015): 53–63. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.acm.20150402.14
- Yamazaki, Kazuo, and Xueying Wang. “Global Stability and Uniform Persistence of the Reaction–Convection–Diffusion Cholera Epidemic Model.” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 14, no. 2 (2017): 559–579. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2017033
- Yang, Chayu. Impact of Awareness Programs on Cholera Dynamics: Two Modeling Approaches. Master’s thesis, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, 2017.
- Lemos-Paião, Ana P., Cristiana J. Silva, and Delfim F. M. Torres. “A Cholera Mathematical Model with Vaccination and the Biggest Outbreak of World’s History.” AIMS Mathematics 4, no. 1 (2019): 240–268. https://doi.org/10.3934/Math.2019.1.240
- Tessema, Haileyesus, Gossay Aliy, Litegebe Wondie, Samuel Abebe, Sisay Ayanaw, Yehualashet Mengistu Hailegebriel, Daniel Makinde, and Hailay Weldegiorgis. “Dynamical Analysis of Cholera Diseases Transmission Model with Hospitalization.” Ethiopian Journal of Natural and Computational Science 3, no. 5 (2023): 431–442. https://doi.org/10.20372/ejncs/Ma.2023.14
- Adesola, Olopade, Nkpe Uwaunyin, and Musleh Ibrahim. “Mathematical Modeling and Stability Analysis of Cholera Transmission Dynamics with Environmental Sanitation and Treatment Interventions.” Journal of Physical Mathematics & Its Applications (2025): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.47363/JPMA/2025(3)132
- Wang, J. “Mathematical Models for Cholera Dynamics—A Review.” Microorganisms 10, no. 12 (November 29, 2022): 2358. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms10122358
- Oguttu, D.W., Okullo, A., Bwire, G. et al. Cholera outbreak caused by drinking lake water contaminated with human faeces in Kaiso Village, Hoima District, Western Uganda, October 2015. Infect Dis Poverty 6, 146 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-017-0359-2
- Mendelsohn, Joshua, and Terence Dawson. “Climate and Cholera in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: The Role of Environmental Factors and Implications for Epidemic Preparedness.” International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health 211, nos. 1–2 (2008): 156–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2006.12.002
- Olaitan, O. M., T. K. Oluwatobi, P. V. Oluwaseun, O. S. Adaobi, M. A. Abiodun, et al. “Cholera Scourge in Nigeria: Promoting Environmental Sanitation Practice to Achieving Good Health for All.” Journal of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology 8 (2022): 246. https://doi.org/10.23937/2474-3658/1510246
- Aluko, O. O. “The Dynamics of Household Sanitation Services and Faeco-Oral Diseases Externalities in Osun State, Southwest Nigeria.” Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 119, no. 3 (March 7, 2025): 228–243. https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trae101
- Freeman, Matthew C., Leslie E. Greene, Robert Dreibelbis, Shadi Saboori, Richard Muga, Babette Brumback, and Richard Rheingans. “Assessing the Impact of a School-Based Water Treatment, Hygiene, and Sanitation Program on Pupil Absence in Nyanza Province, Kenya: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.” Tropical Medicine & International Health 17, no. 3 (2011): 380–391. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2011.02927.x
- Olaniyi, Maliki, and Ogbonna Chibuike. “A Mathematical Model for the Control of Cholera Epidemic without Natural Recovery.” Applied Mathematics 12, no. 8 (2021): 655–668. https://doi.org/10.4236/am.2021.128046
- Diekmann, O., J. A. P. Heesterbeek, and J. A. Metz. “On the Definition and the Computation of the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0R_0R0 in Models for Infectious Diseases in Heterogeneous Populations.” Journal of Mathematical Biology 28, no. 4 (1990): 365–382. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00178324.
- van den Driessche, P., and James Watmough. “Reproduction Numbers and Sub-Threshold Endemic Equilibria for Compartmental Models of Disease Transmission.” Mathematical Biosciences 180, nos. 1–2 (2002): 29–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6
- Ebenbauer, Christian. “Refining LaSalle’s Invariance Principle.” In Proceedings of the 2009 American Control Conference (ACC), 108–112. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACC.2009.5160635
- Batu, Getachew Beyecha, Eshetu Dadi Gurmu, P. Veeresha, and Mohamed Hafez Ahmed. “A Compartmental Mathematical Model of Novel Coronavirus-19 Transmission Dynamics.” Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences 18, no. 6 (2024): 1367–1379. https://doi.org/10.18576/amis/180616
- Agundu, Ijebusonma, Olalekan Oluwayomi, and Tim Ford. “Exploring the Impact of Traditional Practices on Vibrio cholerae Outbreaks in Rural Nigerian Communities: A Field Study with Educational and Behavioral Interventions.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 22, no. 4 (2025): 483. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22040483
- Vogel, Wren, Christina Hwang, and Sangchul Hwang. “Gender and Sanitation: Women’s Experiences in Rural Regions and Urban Slums in India.” Societies 12, no. 1 (2022): 18. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc12010018
- World Health Organization. “Cholera – Multi-country With a Focus on Countries Experiencing Current Surges.” Disease Outbreak News. August 29, 2025. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON579
- Associated Press. “Haiti Reports Cholera Deaths for First Time in 3 Years.” AP News. October 2, 2022. https://apnews.com/article/health-caribbean-united-nations-port-au-prince-haiti-b89bc4acedd58af0e65fe3c8dd553617
- Zhou, Zhe, and Danmeng Shuai. “Disinfection and Post-Disinfection Conditions Drive Bacterial and Viral Evolution across the Environment and Host.” Journal of Hazardous Materials 474 (2024): 134811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.134811
- Oluwasanya, Grace, Ayodetimi Omoniyi, Duminda Perera, Barakat Layi-Adigun, Laurens Thuy, and Manzoor Qadir. “Water Quality, WASH, and Gender: Differential Impacts on Health and Well-Being in Abeokuta City, Nigeria.” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 195 (2023): 11833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11833-
- Kayser, Georgia L., Nitya Rao, Renu Jose, and Anita Raj. “Water, Sanitation and Hygiene: Measuring Gender Equality and Empowerment.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 97, no. 6 (June 1, 2019): 438–440. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.18.223305
- Mari, Lorenzo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Luca Righetto, Rinaldo Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, and Andrea Rinaldo. “Modelling Cholera Epidemics: The Role of Waterways, Human Mobility and Sanitation.” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 9, no. 67 (2012): 376–388. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2011.0304
- Lemos-Paiao, Ana P., Cristiana J. Silva, and Delfim FM Torres. "An epidemic model for cholera with optimal control treatment." Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 318 (2017): 168-180.
- Wolfe, Marlene, Mehar Kaur, Travis Yates, Mark Woodin, and Daniele Lantagne. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between water, sanitation, and hygiene exposures and cholera in case–control studies." The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 99, no. 2 (2018): 534.
- Codeço, Clarissa T. “Endemic and Epidemic Dynamics of Cholera: The Role of the Aquatic Reservoir.” BMC Infectious Diseases 1, no. 1 (2001): Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-1-1
- Lemos-Paião, Ana P., Cristiana J. Silva, and Delfim F. M. Torres. “An Epidemic Model for Cholera with Optimal Control Treatment.” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 318 (2016): 168–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2016.04.039
- Taylor, Dawn L., Tanya M. Kahawita, Sandy Cairncross, and Jeroen HJ Ensink. "The impact of water, sanitation and hygiene interventions to control cholera: a systematic review." PLoS one 10, no. 8 (2015): e0135676.
- Ilić, Irena, and Milena Ilić. “Global Patterns of Trends in Cholera Mortality.” Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 8, no. 3 (2023): 169. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8030169
This study develops and analyzes a non-linear deterministic mathematical model for cholera transmission that
explicitly incorporates a gender-hygiene-driven incidence rate. Recognizing that social roles often determine exposure risks,
particularly in communities where women are primarily responsible for water collection, childcare, and food handling, the
model incorporates gender-disaggregated compartments for susceptible (S_m (t) and S_f (t)), infected (I_m (t) and I_f (t)),
and recovered individuals (R_m (t) and R_f (t)), alongside an environmental reservoir representing Vibrio cholerae
concentration (B(t)). The model extends the classical SIRB framework of [23], by introducing gender-specific hygiene
compliance rates into the infection incidence term, reflecting gendered differences in exposure and hygiene practices.
Analytical results include the derivation of the basic reproduction number (Ro), examination of equilibrium points, and
proof of the positivity and boundedness of solutions. Stability analyses were conducted for both the disease-free and endemic
equilibria, while sensitivity analysis identified the most influential parameters governing cholera spread. Numerical
simulations were performed using parameter values from relevant literature to explore the effects of varying hygiene
compliance, bacterial decay rate, and environmental sanitation on disease prevalence. Results reveal that gender-based
differences in hygiene significantly affect cholera transmission. In particular, higher hygiene adherence among both men
and women markedly reduces the reproduction number and infection prevalence, while poor hygiene and persistent
environmental contamination sustain outbreaks. The study concludes that effective cholera control requires integrating
behavioral and structural interventions—especially those that promote hygiene education among women and improve
environmental sanitation. Overall, this work provides a more realistic and socially responsive framework for modeling
cholera dynamics, bridging the gap between mathematical theory and public-health practice. It contributes to the growing
field of gender-aware epidemiological modeling and offers practical insights for designing sustainable, behavior-driven
cholera control strategies.
Keywords :
Choleraa Transmission, Gender-Hygiene Incidence Rate, Reproduction Number.