Opportunistic Political Budget Cycle and Re-Election Incumbent


Authors : Darmawati, Ratna Ayu Damayanti, Gagaring Pagalung, Mediaty.

Volume/Issue : Volume 4 - 2019, Issue 4 - April

Google Scholar : https://goo.gl/DF9R4u

Scribd : https://bit.ly/2Mbf5zZ

This study aims to prove the existence of an opportunistic political budget cycle that is influenced by Regional Original Revenue (ROR), General Allocation Funds (GAF), and Remaining More Budget Calculation (RMBC) in regional heads election in Indonesia and checked whether regional heads who adopt the policy had a high opportunity of being re-elected or not. The research used data during two years namely 2016 and 2017 elections of 171 provinces/regencies/cities regional governments in Indonesia who participated in the regional heads election simultaneously in 2018. Data analysis used multiple linear regressions for direct relationships among variables. The Opportunistic Political Budget Cycle (OPBC) influenced the results of the re-election while OPBC influenced by GAF and RMBC positively and significantly but the ROR did not have a significant effect. It indicated that changed the number of ROR, GAF, and RMBC affected the determination of education budget, health, infrastructure, social assistance, and grant spending. This article is important because it is the first research that discussed the relevance of the cycle of the political budget to election by considering regional revenues. The results of the study can be input in determining policy and supervision of allocation of expenditure, besides that it can be used as a basis for consideration for voters before deciding whether to give a second chance to Incumbent or not.

Keywords : Opportunistic Political Budget Cycle, Incumbent, Re-Election, ROR, GAF, RMBC.

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