The impact of the global crisis which includes
geopolitical, economic and existential (overlapping crises)
has caused a scarring effect on economic performance.
The post-recession economic growth trajectory is of
urgency in calculating the impact of the shock caused by
the prolonged crisis. This study aims to analyze the effect
of overlapping crises represented by macroeconomic
variables and shocks on the trajectory of economic growth
in Indonesia at the short and long term. The type of data
used in this study is time series with data sources are
obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The
analytical method used the Vector Error Correction
Model (VECM). The results of the study show that in the
short term all variables do not significantly affect
economic growth, while in the long term only inflation and
non-energy commodity price crises have no effect on
Indonesia's economic growth. The inflation variable is
flexible, indicating the occurrence of a natural economic
growth rate. Shock has implications for being aware of the
potential risks of economic growth trajectories due to
overlapping crises. A more active and effective mix of
monetary and fiscal policies is needed to mitigate the
scarring effect caused by the recession.
Keywords :
Overlapping Crises; Trajectory; Economic Growth