Prediction of Voter Number using Top Down Trend Linear Analysis Model


Authors : Yulyani Dewi , Nani Kurniati , Suhartono

Volume/Issue : Volume 3 - 2018, Issue 1 - January

Google Scholar : https://goo.gl/DF9R4u

Scribd : https://goo.gl/Q9Q5yL

Thomson Reuters ResearcherID : https://goo.gl/3bkzwv

The logistics planning of ballots for General Election (GE) has been estimating 1% increase from previous Voters List (named as Daftar Pemilih Tetap, DPT). This assumed percentage easily adopted from increasing percentage of population as described in Report of Aggregate Population (RAP). In fact, there are several factors different between DPT and RAP. DPT isn’t the number of overall population as the RAP states; DPT is the number of potential voters. There are some restriction for who become a voter i.e. more than 17 years old or have married, not be a member of National Army/ Police unless they have retired, must domicile in one area only and may not be registered in two areas, and who are eligible (alive) at the time of GE takes place. DPT becomes the main input for GE Commission, as the basis for ballots logistics planning. The audit from Financial Audit Board (FAB) founded under Reasonable with Exception status, means there isn’t optimal absorption budget for logistics procurement at previous GE 2014 which is only 59.44%. One of the reasons may due to over estimation. Therefore, this paper proposed a method for DPT prediction by using Trend Analysis Forecasting Method i.e. Linear Trend and Non Linear Trend. Considering both Bottom Up and Top Down approach for DPT calculation in one province who has several districts, result the Top Down Linear Trend Model is the best method with 3.22% saving in aggregate financial budgeting plan for GE Commission.

Keywords : Business, Challenge, Strategy, Small Medium Enterprises.

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