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Rainfall Decline Explains About a Quarter of Falling River Water Levels in Northwest Bangladesh: Machine-Learning Attribution and Specific-Stage Evidence


Authors : Md. Abu Bakar Siddik Farhan; Tanvir Alam; Zannatul Mawa; Tariqul Islam

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 9 - September


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/mvwyhjfa

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26sep1440

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.


Abstract : River water levels in northwest Bangladesh have fallen over recent decades, and standardised water level indices are often used to describe hydrological drought where discharge records are scarce. Whether these declines reflect a rainfall deficit, a loss of river flow or a change in the channel itself has not been tested. We combined monthly rainfall from 44 Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) gauges (35 retained after relative homogeneity testing), monthly water levels at 22 river gauges and 15, discharge gaugings for 1980-2022.

Keywords : Drought Propagation; SHAP; Specific Stage; Channel Change; Barind Tract; Bangladesh.

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River water levels in northwest Bangladesh have fallen over recent decades, and standardised water level indices are often used to describe hydrological drought where discharge records are scarce. Whether these declines reflect a rainfall deficit, a loss of river flow or a change in the channel itself has not been tested. We combined monthly rainfall from 44 Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) gauges (35 retained after relative homogeneity testing), monthly water levels at 22 river gauges and 15, discharge gaugings for 1980-2022.

Keywords : Drought Propagation; SHAP; Specific Stage; Channel Change; Barind Tract; Bangladesh.

Paper Submission Last Date
31 - October - 2026

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