Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services Value Changes: Implication for Sustainability Development Goals


Authors : Shishay kiros weldegebriel; Ranavijai Singh; Kumelachew Yeshitela

Volume/Issue : Volume 6 - 2021, Issue 4 - April

Google Scholar : http://bitly.ws/9nMw

Scribd : https://bit.ly/3ortcAX

This scientific investigation quantified future land use/ land cover variations on ecosystem service values under different scenarios in Mekelle city region for the year 2030. The study utilized land use/land cover dynamics data for the year 2019 and predicted LULC changes for the year 2030. Identification of the driving forces was the most important step in predicting the future LULC and was performed using the cellular automata models in CLUDMondo which is a future land use simulation model by coupling human and the natural driving forces. Scenarios were made under business as usual, implementation of PES schemes and spatial planning. In a business-as-usual scenario, it was detected that ecosystem services value will fall by 2030 from the base year of 2019, while under spatial planning scenario, the ecosystem service value will increase by 5.2%. The results can serve as valuable information on policy design in developing land use options, which aid to enhance ecosystem service value. Therefore, special attention should be given to the rehabilitation of ecosystems, the protection of the remaining natural vegetation and water bodies. Generally, these results offer useful inputs to planners to adopt eco-friendly policies to achieve sustainable development goals.

Keywords : Scenario, Ecosystem Service, Value, Land Use/Land Change, Sustainable Development Goals.

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