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Spatiotemporal Analysis of Population Density Patterns for Urban Flood Resilience and Disaster Impact Modeling in the Municipality of Carmen, Davao del Norte


Authors : Kim Harvey C. Roca; Charlyn T. Gorgonio

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 6 - June


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/4pd7traf

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26jun1517

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.


Abstract : Population density is a critical planning indicator that influences infrastructure provision, public service delivery, and resource allocation. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of population density in the Municipality of Carmen, Davao del Norte, Philippines, from 2015 to 2024 and examined their implications for local planning and development. A descriptive-quantitative approach integrated with spatial and temporal analyses was employed using barangay-level population and land area data. Results showed that the municipal average population density increased from 441.71 persons/km² in 2015 to 505.26 persons/km² in 2024, representing a 14.38% increase over the study period. Barangays Ising, Sto. Niño and Tubod consistently recorded the highest population density, while Minda, Salvacion, and San Isidro remained the least densely populated. Seventeen of the twenty barangays exhibited increasing density trends. Spatial analysis revealed a high degree of persistence in the municipality’s settlement structure, with population growth occurring primarily through the intensification of existing population centers rather than the emergence of new centers. The findings indicate that population density patterns in Carmen remain unevenly distributed across barangays and highlight the importance of incorporating population density analysis into local planning processes to support evidence-based development decisions and sustainable resource allocation.

Keywords : Population Density, Spatiotemporal Analysis, Settlement Patterns, Local Planning, Carmen, Davao Del Norte.

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Population density is a critical planning indicator that influences infrastructure provision, public service delivery, and resource allocation. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of population density in the Municipality of Carmen, Davao del Norte, Philippines, from 2015 to 2024 and examined their implications for local planning and development. A descriptive-quantitative approach integrated with spatial and temporal analyses was employed using barangay-level population and land area data. Results showed that the municipal average population density increased from 441.71 persons/km² in 2015 to 505.26 persons/km² in 2024, representing a 14.38% increase over the study period. Barangays Ising, Sto. Niño and Tubod consistently recorded the highest population density, while Minda, Salvacion, and San Isidro remained the least densely populated. Seventeen of the twenty barangays exhibited increasing density trends. Spatial analysis revealed a high degree of persistence in the municipality’s settlement structure, with population growth occurring primarily through the intensification of existing population centers rather than the emergence of new centers. The findings indicate that population density patterns in Carmen remain unevenly distributed across barangays and highlight the importance of incorporating population density analysis into local planning processes to support evidence-based development decisions and sustainable resource allocation.

Keywords : Population Density, Spatiotemporal Analysis, Settlement Patterns, Local Planning, Carmen, Davao Del Norte.

Paper Submission Last Date
31 - July - 2026

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