The Impact of Recent Currency Devaluation on the Export and Import Performance of Bangladesh: An Empirical Study


Authors : Arijita Roy; Dipon Kar

Volume/Issue : Volume 8 - 2023, Issue 10 - October

Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/294u5csy

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/38b2umhk

DOI : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10040239

Abstract : This study examines the effect of the devaluation of local currency BDT against the US Dollar on the import-export performance of Bangladesh. Time series monthly basis data on export, import & exchange rate of Bangladesh from January-2021 to September- 2022 is analyzed in this study to explore the impact. Data from secondary sources like Bangladesh Bank, Export Promotion Bureau, etc. is used in this paper. The regression model is applied here to estimate the outcomes. Major findings of the paper are: the regression model estimates the devaluation of BDT against USD has a significant impact on imports of Bangladesh where it shows insignificant impact on exports of the country. In addition, the finding of this paper is against the basic economic theory in the aspect of imports of Bangladesh since despite the devaluation of local currency, the volume of imports is increasing continuously where it needs to decrease according to economics. Moreover, both the exports and imports of Bangladesh are in increasing trend over the last couple of years.

Keywords : Currency Devaluation, Exchange Rate Volatility, Export, Import, BDT, USD, Regression Model, Bangladesh Bank.

This study examines the effect of the devaluation of local currency BDT against the US Dollar on the import-export performance of Bangladesh. Time series monthly basis data on export, import & exchange rate of Bangladesh from January-2021 to September- 2022 is analyzed in this study to explore the impact. Data from secondary sources like Bangladesh Bank, Export Promotion Bureau, etc. is used in this paper. The regression model is applied here to estimate the outcomes. Major findings of the paper are: the regression model estimates the devaluation of BDT against USD has a significant impact on imports of Bangladesh where it shows insignificant impact on exports of the country. In addition, the finding of this paper is against the basic economic theory in the aspect of imports of Bangladesh since despite the devaluation of local currency, the volume of imports is increasing continuously where it needs to decrease according to economics. Moreover, both the exports and imports of Bangladesh are in increasing trend over the last couple of years.

Keywords : Currency Devaluation, Exchange Rate Volatility, Export, Import, BDT, USD, Regression Model, Bangladesh Bank.

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