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The Interrelationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Evidence


Authors : Dr. Fakhruddin Rahi; Dr. Md. Moazzam Nazri

Volume/Issue : Volume 11 - 2026, Issue 9 - September


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/32y2enud

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/26sep1310

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.


Abstract : In recent times, when India is moving towards growth but due to inflation, this growth may be reduced. Recently, World Bank cut off India’s growth rate in the third quarter, due to the high inflation rate which reduced the money value in the international market. Many researchers predict that it has positive relation in the short-run only. But it is not fruitful for long-run economic growth. This study investigates whether a country's growth will be impacted favourably or unfavourably by its inflation rate. Annual data is taken from the government’s official sites after that ADF (Augmented Dickey fuller test), PP Unit root test (Phillips Perron Test) is used for identify whether the data is stationary or non-stationary. Following analysis, the co-integration and Vector Error Correction (VEC) model is used to illustrate how inflation and economic growth are related over the long-run.

Keywords : GDP, Co-Integration, Economic Expansion, and Inflation.

References :

  1. Andrés, J., & Hernando, I. (1997). Inflation and economic growth: some evidence for the OECD countries 1.
  2. Ekinci, R., Tüzün, O., & Ceylan, F. (n.d.). Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPERIENCES OF SOME INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES. In Financial and Monetary Research, Bucharest (Vol. 24, Issue 1). http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/inflation-targets.html
  3. Ghosh, A., & Phillips S. (1998). Inflation, disinflation and Growth. IMF Working Paper No. WP/98/68. Washington, DC: International monetory fund
  4. Mallik, G., & Chowdhury, A. (2001). INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM FOUR SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES. In Asia-Pacific Development Journal (Vol. 8, Issue 1).
  5. Munyeka, W. (2014). The relationship between economic growth and inflation in the South African economy. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(15), 119–129. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n15p119
  6. Pet kov, P., Datta, D., & Kumar Mukhopadhyay Professor, D. (n.d.). Related papers An Economet ric Analysis of t he Invest ment Funct ion for Bulgaria Allowing for t he Impact of … Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Malaysia-An Econometric Review.
  7. Saha, S. (n.d.). Inflation and Economic Growth in India-An Econometric Study Fiscal Policies and Structural Changes in Southeast Asian Economies: An Econometric and Time Series Analysis View project Public Policies and Sustainable Development in Post-Reform India-Regional Responses and the Way Forward View project. www.asianacademicresearch.org
  8. Salian, P. v. (n.d.). Inflation and Economic Growth in India-An Empirical Analysis.
  9. Sattarov, K. (2011). Inflation and Economic Growth Analyzing the Threshold Level of Inflation-Case Study of Finland, 1980-2010 Acknowledgement.
  10. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND GROWTH: A GENERAL EVALUATION. (1999).

In recent times, when India is moving towards growth but due to inflation, this growth may be reduced. Recently, World Bank cut off India’s growth rate in the third quarter, due to the high inflation rate which reduced the money value in the international market. Many researchers predict that it has positive relation in the short-run only. But it is not fruitful for long-run economic growth. This study investigates whether a country's growth will be impacted favourably or unfavourably by its inflation rate. Annual data is taken from the government’s official sites after that ADF (Augmented Dickey fuller test), PP Unit root test (Phillips Perron Test) is used for identify whether the data is stationary or non-stationary. Following analysis, the co-integration and Vector Error Correction (VEC) model is used to illustrate how inflation and economic growth are related over the long-run.

Keywords : GDP, Co-Integration, Economic Expansion, and Inflation.

Paper Submission Last Date
31 - October - 2026

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