Authors :
O.U. ODUKOYA; M.A AdIO
Volume/Issue :
Volume 7 - 2022, Issue 3 - March
Google Scholar :
https://bit.ly/3IIfn9N
Scribd :
https://bit.ly/3re4CpN
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6448204
Abstract :
This paper includes an empirical examination
of modelling and forecasting time series data of the official
Nigerian Naira to US Dollar exchange rate. Monthly data
from January 1981 to December 2016 were forecasted
using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The study's
goals are to quantify the trend, fit a suitable model, and
forecast future exchange rates. The Exploratory Data
Analysis such as the time plot, Histogram and box plot
were plotted. The trend was also estimated using least
square and moving average methods. The seasonal
variation and seasonal index were estimated using least
square method. The data is then differenced once, plotted
and the plot indicated that the process is stationary after
the first difference
Keywords :
Time Series, ARIMA, Forecasting, Box-Jenkins, AIC, ACF, PACF, ADF, Time plot, Histogram, box plot, Stationary, Naira, US Dollar.
This paper includes an empirical examination
of modelling and forecasting time series data of the official
Nigerian Naira to US Dollar exchange rate. Monthly data
from January 1981 to December 2016 were forecasted
using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach. The study's
goals are to quantify the trend, fit a suitable model, and
forecast future exchange rates. The Exploratory Data
Analysis such as the time plot, Histogram and box plot
were plotted. The trend was also estimated using least
square and moving average methods. The seasonal
variation and seasonal index were estimated using least
square method. The data is then differenced once, plotted
and the plot indicated that the process is stationary after
the first difference
Keywords :
Time Series, ARIMA, Forecasting, Box-Jenkins, AIC, ACF, PACF, ADF, Time plot, Histogram, box plot, Stationary, Naira, US Dollar.
