Uncovering Key Influences on Student Performance Through Educational Data Mining: An XGBoost Approach with Cluster Analysis


Authors : D. A. Udani; Daminda Herath

Volume/Issue : Volume 10 - 2025, Issue 7 - July


Google Scholar : https://tinyurl.com/e4jtmww9

Scribd : https://tinyurl.com/cts7y3jb

DOI : https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25jul652

Note : A published paper may take 4-5 working days from the publication date to appear in PlumX Metrics, Semantic Scholar, and ResearchGate.

Note : Google Scholar may take 30 to 40 days to display the article.


Abstract : This paper presents a machine learning framework achieving 97.7% accuracy (R 2 = 0.977) in predicting student performance by integrating academic metrics (e.g., exam scores) with behavioral indicators (question-asking frequency, ChatGPT usage). K-means clustering reveals three distinct student groups with significant performance gaps (49.33 vs. 40.05 average marks). Deployed via a Streamlit interface, the system demon- strates that behavioral features contribute 19.7% additional explanatory power beyond traditional academic data.

Keywords : Educational Data Mining, Predictive Analytics, Machine Learning, Student Performance, Behavioral Clustering.

References :

  1. Z. Alamgir, H. Akram, S. Karim, and A. Wali, “Enhancing student performance prediction via educational data mining on academic data,” Informatics in Education, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 1–24, 2024.
  2. G. Al-Tameemi, J. Xue, S. Ajit, T. Kanakis, and I. Hadi, “Predictive learning analytics in higher education: Factors, methods and challenges,” in 2020 International Conference on Advances in Computing and Communication Engineering (ICACCE). IEEE, 2020, pp. 1–9.
  3. S. Kulkarni, “A study on data mining techniques to improve students’ performance in higher education,” International Journal of Science and Research, vol. 12, pp. 1287–1292, 2023.
  4. K. P. Karani, “A study on data mining techniques, concepts and its application in higher education,” Journal of Education Research, vol. 10,pp. 777–784, 2023.
  5. K. Yang, “Predicting student performance using artificial neural net- works,” Journal of Arts, Society, and Education Studies, vol. 6, pp. 45– 77, 2024.
  6. M. Yin, H. Cao, Z. Yu, and X. Pan, “Manual label and machine learning in clustering and predicting student performance,” International Journal of Web-Based Learning and Teaching Technologies, vol. 19, 2024.
  7. L. Pelima, Y. Sukmana, and Y. Rosmansyah, “Predicting university student graduation using academic performance and machine learning: A systematic literature review,” IEEE Access, 2024.
  8. S. Begum and M. Ashok, “A novel approach to mitigate academic underachievement in higher education: Feature selection, classifier performance, and interpretability in predicting student performance,” International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, vol. 11, pp. 140–150, 2024.
  9. N. Abuzinadah et al., “Role of convolutional features and machine learning for predicting student academic performance from MOODLE data,” PLoS ONE, vol. 18, no. 9, p. e0293061, 2023.
  10. Y. Alsariera et al., “Assessment and evaluation of different machine learning algorithms for predicting student performance,” Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, vol. 2022, 2022.
  11. I. Manga and D. Nzadon, “An intelligent system for predicting students performance,” Journal of Computer Science, vol. 24, pp. 36–42, 2022.
  12. W. Xiao and J. Hu, “A state-of-the-art survey of predicting students’ performance using artificial neural networks,” Engineering Reports, vol. 5, no. 5, 2023.
  13. S. Li, D. H. A. Ibrahim, E. D. Hossain, and M. bin Hossin, “Student performance analysis system (SPAS),” in 5th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology for The Muslim World. IEEE, 2014, pp. 1–6.
  14. M. F. Lee, N. F. M. Nawi, and C. S. Lai, “Engineering students’ job performance prediction model based on adversity quotient & career interest,” in 2017 7th World Engineering Education Forum (WEEF). IEEE, 2017, pp. 132–135.
  15. P. Cortez and A. M. G. Silva, “Using data mining to predict secondary school student performance,” in Proceedings of 5th Future Business Technology Conference. EUROSIS-ETI, 2008, pp. 5–12.
  16. T. Wang and A. Mitrovic, “Using neural networks to predict student’s performance,” in International Conference on Computers in Education. IEEE, 2002, pp. 969–973.
  17. K. Sixhaxa, A. Jadhav, and R. Ajoodha, “Predicting students perfor- mance in exams using machine learning techniques,” in 2022 12th Inter- national Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence). IEEE, 2022, pp. 635–640.
  18. A. S. Carter, C. D. Hundhausen, and O. Adesope, “The normalized programming state model: Predicting student performance in computing courses based on programming behavior,” in Proceedings of the eleventh annual international conference on International computing education research. ACM, 2015, pp. 141–150.
  19. D. Aggarwal, S. Mittal, and V. Bali, “Significance of non-academic parameters for predicting student performance using ensemble learning techniques,” International Journal of System Dynamics Applications, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 38–49, 2021.
  20. D. Kabakchieva, “Predicting student performance by using data mining methods for classification,” Cybernetics and Information Technologies, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 61–72, 2013.
  21. G. B. Brahim, “Predicting student performance from online engagement activities using novel statistical features,” Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, vol. 47, no. 8, pp. 10 225–10 243, 2022.
  22. A. A. Saa, M. Al-Emran, and K. Shaalan, “Factors affecting students’ performance in higher education: A systematic review of predictive data mining techniques,” Technology, Knowledge and Learning, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 567–598, 2019.
  23. N. T. Nghe, P. Janecek, and P. Haddawy, “A comparative analysis of techniques for predicting academic performance,” in 37th Annual Frontiers in Education Conference. IEEE, 2007, pp. T2G–7.
  24. S. Kotsiantis, C. Pierrakeas, and P. Pintelas, “Efficiency of machine learning techniques in predicting students’ performance in distance learning systems,” Educational Software Development Laboratory, Uni- versity of Patras, Tech. Rep., 2002.
  25. S. Agrawal, S. K. Vishwakarma, and A. K. Sharma, “Using data mining classifier for predicting student’s performance in UG level,” International Journal of Computer Applications, vol. 172, no. 8, pp. 39–44, 2017.
  26. C. Romero and S. Ventura, “Educational data mining: A review of the state of the art,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C, vol. 40, no. 6, pp. 601–618, 2010.
  27. F. Pedregosa et al., “Scikit-learn: Machine learning in Python,” Journal of Machine Learning Research, vol. 12, pp. 2825–2830, 2011.
  28. L. Kaufman and P. J. Rousseeuw, Finding groups in data: An introduc- tion to cluster analysis. John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
  29. M. Berland, R. Baker, and P. Blikstein, “Educational data mining and learning analytics: Applications to constructionist research,” Technology, Knowledge and Learning, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 83–102, 2015.

This paper presents a machine learning framework achieving 97.7% accuracy (R 2 = 0.977) in predicting student performance by integrating academic metrics (e.g., exam scores) with behavioral indicators (question-asking frequency, ChatGPT usage). K-means clustering reveals three distinct student groups with significant performance gaps (49.33 vs. 40.05 average marks). Deployed via a Streamlit interface, the system demon- strates that behavioral features contribute 19.7% additional explanatory power beyond traditional academic data.

Keywords : Educational Data Mining, Predictive Analytics, Machine Learning, Student Performance, Behavioral Clustering.

CALL FOR PAPERS


Paper Submission Last Date
31 - December - 2025

Video Explanation for Published paper

Never miss an update from Papermashup

Get notified about the latest tutorials and downloads.

Subscribe by Email

Get alerts directly into your inbox after each post and stay updated.
Subscribe
OR

Subscribe by RSS

Add our RSS to your feedreader to get regular updates from us.
Subscribe